Middle East crisis: gas bills expected to rise by 25 to 50%, which regions are most affected?

Among them, 60% do not have a fixed-price contract and therefore find themselves without protection against this surge in prices.

According to Hello Watt estimates, if this trend continues in the coming months, household bills could increase by more than 25%, or nearly €260 extra per year for a family of four heated with gas[1]. The increase could even reach 50%, representing an additional cost of €525 per year, if prices remain very high at around €70/MWh.

Fuel oil users are hit even more brutally: directly indexed to the price of crude oil, without any regulated tariff, the price of domestic fuel oil has soared by more than 40% in ten days, exposing the 2,6 million households concerned, often rural and among the most vulnerable, to the full force of the impact.

This means that nearly 13 million households are directly affected by the crisis in the Middle East, and it is urgent to provide them with concrete solutions.

In just 6 years, the gas bill for French people has doubled.

Between 2020 and 2026, the gas bill for a typical four-person household doubled, rising from €630 to €1.260 per year for a consumption of 10.000 kWh. This increase follows the evolution of the benchmark gas price, which rose from €0.518 per kWh (including VAT) in March 2020 to €0.1051 per kWh (including VAT) in March 2026.

The current scenario may be reminiscent of the 2022 energy crisis. However, the situation in 2026 is fundamentally different, with concrete solutions within reach of individuals this time.

In 2022, the French suffered a double blow: between February 2022 and December 2024, gas prices had increased by approximately 29%, and electricity prices by 45%[2]. No alternative solution was therefore economically viable in the short term.

Today, the situation has changed. While gas prices are rising again due to geopolitical tensions, French electricity is now plentiful, thanks to a functioning nuclear power plant fleet and the development of renewable energies. The regulated electricity sales tariff (also known as the blue tariff) remained stable in February 2026, after a 15% decrease in February 2025, and the best market offers currently show discounts of up to 17% on the price per kWh compared to the regulated tariff.

The most exposed departments: Moselle, Nord and Meurthe-et-Moselle in the lead

To determine which departments will be most affected by the gas price increase, Hello Watt calculated a gas price increase exposure index by combining the current proportion of homes heated with gas and the average consumption of gas-heated households in each department. Moselle, where more than 40% of homes are heated with gas, with an average annual consumption of 12 MWh, comes out on top, followed by Nord and Meurthe-et-Moselle.

Replacing your gas heating system with a heat pump is the most effective solution to protect yourself from rising bills

Heating accounts for 60 to 70% of a household's energy bill. The equipment chosen for heating is therefore the number one factor impacting the budget, far more so than light bulbs or devices left on standby.

Some French people are still hesitant to take the plunge, convinced that good prior insulation is essential before installing a heat pump. This caution was long justified. But the technological evolution of heat pumps has changed the game, as recently confirmed by ADEME in an opinion published in October 2025: correctly sized and adjusted during installation, an air-to-water heat pump is now effective even in a poorly insulated home[3].

In practice, heating bills are halved and energy consumption reduced by two-thirds, according to ADEME. With a real coefficient of performance (SCOP) of 2,9 on average over a season, an air-to-water heat pump produces nearly 3 kWh of heat for every 1 kWh of electricity consumed, which is three times less energy than a gas boiler for the same result.

Another misconception is that subsidies are only available to the lowest-income households. While MaPrimeRénov' is reserved for households with very low to middle incomes, all income levels, including higher ones, can benefit from Energy Savings Certificates (CEE). Furthermore, since October 1, 2025, CEE bonuses have been significantly increased for the installation of a heat pump to replace a carbon-based system.

Thus, for a 100 m² house, a household with a higher income can now benefit from subsidies of up to €5.000. For the most modest households, the subsidies (CEE + MaPrimeRenov') can reach €10.800, reducing the remaining cost to just €1.500 for the most affordable heat pump models.

With a 25% increase, heating with a heat pump costs almost half as much as heating with gas.

Hello Watt compared the annual costs of different heating methods for the same household, assuming a 25% increase in gas prices in the coming months. The household studied, with intermediate incomes, consumes 10.000 kWh of gas per year and can receive €7.200 in subsidies for the installation of an air-to-water heat pump (€3.000 MaPrimeRénov' + €4.200 CEE) with an initial cost of €14.320 (12 kW air-to-water model for heating and hot water).

With a 25% increase in gas prices, this household almost halves its annual heating costs with a heat pump compared to a gas boiler (-47%). With a scenario of a larger gas price increase, reaching 50%, the gap widens even further, with a 120% cost premium for gas.

The average return on investment for a heat pump is 7 years on average today, and this period is mechanically shortening as gas prices increase.

Furthermore, installing a heat pump improves the energy performance of the dwelling by an average of 2 DPE classes, which also increases its property value.

According to Pierre-François Morin, Director of Energy Renovation at Hello Watt: “In 2022, the French had no fallback option: gas and electricity prices skyrocketed simultaneously. Today, electricity, even if it remains more expensive than before the crisis, has become much more competitive compared to gas. For households heated with fossil fuels, switching to a heat pump is now the most concrete way to protect themselves sustainably against price volatility.”

In the short term, opt for a fixed-price gas contract

While switching heating systems is the most effective way to protect against energy bill increases in the long term, Hello Watt recommends that individuals choose a competitive gas offer with a fixed price for at least one year in the very short term to secure their rate. Currently, fixed-price offers for three years are available.

Many households heated with gas are also making this choice: Hello Watt has seen an increase of almost 90% in the number of gas contracts signed since the beginning of the conflict.

According to Maxime Detony, Director of the Energy division at Hello Watt: "The rise in market prices is not immediately reflected in household bills, but a catch-up is inevitable for those with indexed-price contracts. There is a critical window of opportunity to act now and secure your gas price with a fixed-price contract before suppliers are forced to raise their prices."

[1] Hello Watt estimate based on an average annual consumption of 10.000 kWh for a family of 4 people in a 100 m² house. Projected increase of 25% applied to the gas tariff in force in March 2026.

[2] Between February 2022 and December 2024, the reference selling price of gas (regulated gas selling tariff until the first half of 2023) increased from 8,73 to 11,24 euro cents per kWh, and the regulated selling tariff of electricity increased from 17,40 euro cents to 25,15 euro cents per kWh.

[3] ADEME, Opinion on the actual performance of heat pumps, October 2025.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.