Logistics real estate: 2025 marked the encouraging return of large transactions to European markets

Despite an uncertain economic environment and persistent geopolitical tensions, European logistics real estate maintained positive momentum in 2025.

User markets are holding up despite a challenging economic climate.

The year 2025 was a mixed bag, with highly varied situations across different countries. Economic conditions and geopolitical uncertainties led companies to postpone their real estate projects in a number of European markets.

For Craig Maguire, Head of European Logistics at BNP Paribas Real Estate: “However, several structural trends are emerging at the European level, including the return of large volumes, with a marked increase in surface area, ranging from 20.000 to 40.000 m². Furthermore, there is significant heterogeneity in vacancy rates, ranging from 2% to 11% depending on the area. In terms of rents, they continue to rise, driven by the scarcity of supply in tight markets such as Barcelona, ​​Milan, and Prague.”

Behind this resilience, significant disparities remain, directly linked to local fundamentals:

• United Kingdom: particularly strong activity in the Midlands (Birmingham), which concentrate 40% of transactions with strong demand especially in the health and defense sectors.
• Germany: Transactions of more than 20.000 m² increased by +30%, driven by logistics providers on behalf of e-commerce companies.
• France: activity (-4%) was hampered by an uncertain economic and political context.
• Spain: Driven by GDP growth of +2,9% in 2025, activity is almost back to its record level of 2022.
• Netherlands: volumes decline, hampered by land scarcity and administrative constraints; for the first time, second-hand exceeds new.
• Poland: After a start to the year marked by reduced activity, take-up gradually recovered in the second half, while the vacancy rate contracted slightly to 7,4% in Q4 2025.

At the European level, the largest transactions were signed in France and the United Kingdom (all exceeding 100.000 m²): two transactions by Amazon (Chartres, Beauvais) and one by Marks & Spencer (120.000 m²) in the north of England.

Rental market recovery: rents still trending upwards

In 2025, logistics rents increased by an average of 4,5% in Europe. This trend can be explained by several factors:

• The scarcity of available land,
• The small number of speculative developments,
• The rise in construction costs and the upgrading of warehouses.

The upward trend is expected to continue in 2026, but at a more moderate pace than that observed in recent years.

A confirmed recovery in the investment market

With nearly €45 billion invested in 2025, the industrial and logistics investment market is returning to its pre-crisis level, supported by average growth of +11% across Europe.

For Craig Maguire: “This recovery is driven by a more stable financial environment, better-controlled inflation, and renewed investor interest in logistics assets, which now represent a quarter of European investments, as much as offices. However, it is not uniform across the continent. Investment volumes reveal marked disparities between markets.”

Thus, the German and UK markets account for nearly 50% of total investment. The latter, particularly dynamic, represents a third of European investments. Along with Sweden, these two markets benefited from sales of large portfolios, which boosted volumes. In Germany, the year was more moderate, but the second half saw a notable acceleration, especially for portfolio sales. In Spain, a solid macroeconomic environment continues to support activity.

The return of mega-deals and pan-European joint ventures

The year 2025 was marked by the return of large-scale operations to the European logistics investment market. Among the most significant:

• LondonMetric acquired Urban Logistics' UK portfolio for €1,4 billion.
• Tritax Big Box has acquired an industrial portfolio from Blackstone valued at €1,2 billion.
• Segro has acquired from Tritax Eurobox a portfolio of 370.000 m² located in Germany and the Netherlands.

The market was also enlivened by several pan-European joint ventures, illustrating the growing interest of international investors such as the merger between AustralianSuper and Oxford Properties and a partnership between AREIM and VGP.

Towards a stabilization of yield rates in 2026

In 2025, prime yields narrowed among the major European economies, ranging from 4,5% in Germany to 5,4% in Italy. The higher-than-expected rise in long-term interest rates led to a slight increase in yields in France and Germany at the end of the year.

For Craig Maguire: "For 2026, the outlook points towards a phase of stabilization. Markets should see stable returns and a moderate increase in market values, driven by continued growth in rents."

*France, Poland, Germany, Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.