Logistics real estate: the oversupply will be absorbed by 2030

This is one of the main findings of the latest publication from Les Echos Études, "The logistics real estate market to 2030" (March 2026), which analyzes the dynamics of the stock, the needs by asset type and the economic performance of the sector's players.

From tension to overcapacity

For several years, the French logistics real estate market operated under pressure, driven by sustained demand. This momentum remained robust in recent years: nearly 13 million square meters were created between 2022 and 2025, bringing the total stock to 136 million square meters, according to Les Echos Études. However, this wave of deliveries coincided with a reversal in demand. After peaking in 2022, take-up fell by nearly a third, due to the economic slowdown, tighter financing conditions, and shippers adopting a wait-and-see approach.

The gap between a still-dynamic supply and a weakening demand has gradually destabilized the market. The sector has thus entered a period of overcapacity, marking a cyclical reversal after several years of strain.

More selective players in a more demanding environment

This reversal is directly impacting the activity of developers. Volumes are declining, while revenue growth relies more heavily on prices. In a more cautious investor market, closing times are lengthening and pre-financing of projects is decreasing.

Faced with this environment, players are adjusting their strategy: fewer projects, but more selective ones. This discipline allows them to preserve margins and maintain profitability, which has increased by 3,3 points in three years, despite a less buoyant market.

For real estate companies, the fundamentals remain solid, supported by rising rents and indexation mechanisms. However, half of the players are failing to create value, as their profitability is lower than the increase in the weighted average cost of capital.

In this new cycle, the best-positioned players are those able to act from the project design stage and enhance their assets. Development, rental security, energy production, and service integration become key levers for improving returns and differentiating assets.

2030: slowdown in the fleet and gradual return to balance

After the rapid expansion of recent years, the logistics real estate market is entering a new phase: one of adjustment. In the short term, it will first absorb the excesses of the previous cycle. The sustained production undertaken between 2022 and 2024 will continue to put pressure on the market, while demand remains weak. The vacancy rate is thus expected to reach a peak of around 6,5% in 2026, reflecting a still abundant inventory and a temporarily unbalanced market.

But the conditions for rebalancing are indeed in place. Construction starts are slowing, constrained both by land scarcity and by more demanding financing conditions. Growth in the French logistics sector should therefore gradually moderate to around +2% per year by 2030. As supply regulates and demand stabilizes, the excess inventory will be absorbed, returning to a vacancy rate close to 4,5% by 2030.

Study Summary

Summary: 15 pages to understand the essentials

A quantified overview of the logistics real estate portfolio

• Total installed area in France.
• Distribution by EPL sizes (XXL, urban courier warehouse…), by user sectors (retail, e-commerce, agro, pharma, industry, 3PL…), by customer profiles and by warehouse types (ambient vs refrigerated park).
• Geography of settlements: extended backbone, emerging zones, land pressures.

Market dynamics

• Evolution of surfaces placed and delivered.
• Investment trends by asset type.
• New supply-demand balance: capacity, obsolescence, territorial trade-offs.

Economic and financial analysis of the sector

• This section presents an in-depth analysis of the main financial ratios of the sector based on the globalization of the accounts of promoters and financial institutions from the Exclusif Les Echos Études x Diane Moody's panel.
• Impact of costs (land, construction, financing) on ​​the profitability of the sector.
• Financial results: what trajectory, what prospects for 2030?

Towards a new generation of logistics warehouses

“Real estate + services” model, modularity (plug & play warehouses, reversible, compatible with emerging technologies), digitalization & automation, energy & photovoltaics: overview of current initiatives and upcoming developments.

Client expectations (Exclusive investigation)

Survey of investors and users: investment intentions, choice of location, ESG requirements, energy performance and expectations regarding services (energy, data, automation…).

2030 scenarios

• Analysis of the main drivers (nearshoring, temperature-controlled, micro-hubs, intermodality) and their impact on warehouse demand.
• Future storage capacity needs by sector (automotive, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, retail, aeronautics…).
• Park size by 2030.
• The appeal of the different formats.
• Reorganization of the geography of settlements.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.