Living in 2050: Geographer Guillaume Faburel advocates for a rebalancing between metropolitan areas and rural territories

After a summer marked by a succession of heat waves and fires, Guillaume Faburel questions the habitability of French territories by 2050. A university professor of geography and planning at Lumière University Lyon 2, he develops his proposals in Where to Live?, a book produced in collaboration with Isabelle Brokman.

The book aims to make accessible reflections previously presented in scientific essays.

"It is a more concise, illustrated, educational work that puts into practice ideas previously presented in the form of scientific essays."

Metropolization at the heart of his critique

Guillaume Faburel begins with the observation that extreme weather events are increasing due to climate change. He specifically points to metropolization, understood as the growing concentration of populations, activities, and wealth in large urban areas over the past fifty years.

Cities now house more than half of the world's population. They also concentrate significant needs for energy, materials, and infrastructure. In a broader critique of the contemporary economic model, the geographer argues that the efficiency gains achieved in urban areas can be negated by the emergence of new uses and increased consumption.

According to him, this concentration also makes large cities more vulnerable to climate, health, social, or food crises. Their functioning depends, in fact, on resources, production, and logistical networks largely located outside their territory.

Major cities exposed to supply disruptions

The author argues that the average energy autonomy of French metropolitan areas would be limited to six hours in the event of a major power outage, while their food autonomy would not exceed three days. He anticipates a rise in supply difficulties due to climate and energy constraints.

Adding to this dependence is exposure to urban heat islands. Guillaume Faburel estimates that, during a heat wave, the temperature difference between a metropolis of 600.000 inhabitants and a rural area located 50 kilometers away could reach 12°C.

These estimates are used by the geographer to defend his proposal of "de-metropolization". However, they do not mean that rural areas would be spared from climate change, droughts, fires or tensions over water resources.

Rebalancing populations without idealizing the countryside

Guillaume Faburel nevertheless believes that some rural areas have better adaptation and mitigation capacities, particularly due to their proximity to agricultural areas, energy resources and natural environments.

"Rural areas are subservient territories shaped to serve urban needs. They are the ones that produce the food and energy on which the major cities depend."

According to the geographer, the model based on transporting goods over hundreds of kilometers could become increasingly difficult to maintain. He therefore argues for bringing living and production areas closer together, as well as for more sustainable consumption patterns.

This approach would take the form of a progressive "de-metropolization", inspired by the concept of "territorial relocation" which emerged in the 1970s. The objective would be to correct the demographic concentration in favor of cities, without reproducing metropolitan lifestyles identically in the countryside.

Seven geographical areas considered more resilient

Along with other researchers gathered within the Post-Urban Movement, Guillaume Faburel indicates that he has identified seven territorial areas likely to offer greater resilience. These include certain hills in Central Brittany, Poitou and Normandy, as well as sectors of the Massif Central, the Morvan, the Pyrenees, the Pre-Alps and the Alps.

This prospective selection would be based on around thirty criteria: evolution of climatic extremes, water availability, agricultural practices favorable to biodiversity, density of forest cover or capacity to cope with a decrease in resources.

According to researchers, these areas are currently home to nearly four million inhabitants and could double their population by 2050 without disrupting their ecological balance. This projection is a working hypothesis put forward by the movement and not an official map guaranteeing the future habitability of these territories.

Relocate jobs, services and activities

Such a demographic rebalancing would require a profound transformation of land-use planning. Welcoming new residents would need to be accompanied by suitable housing, public services, shops, transport, healthcare facilities and additional educational capacity, while controlling soil sealing and the pressure exerted on water resources.

Guillaume Faburel believes that this movement, noticeable since the health crisis, would also require the relocation of some economic activities. He estimates that ten million rural workers would need to be mobilized around agriculture, crafts, healthcare, and education.

"The proposed relocation will not simply replicate current lifestyles. Some activities will need to be relocated. It is estimated that ten million rural workers will need to be brought back into the workforce in sectors such as farming, crafts, healthcare, and education."

Through this proposal, deliberately at odds with planning policies pursued for several decades, the geographer invites us to move beyond the mere technical adaptation of metropolitan areas. His approach advocates a more comprehensive transformation of living spaces, activities, and consumption patterns in order, in his words, to "learn to live better with less."