Has the French economy picked up again in early 2021, or will we still have to wait for a clear improvement on the health front to turn our backs on the recession?
At the beginning of March, INSEE expected growth of 1% for the first quarter, after the record recession of 8,2% in 2020, and a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) of 1,3% in the last quarter alone. .
France is located on "a crest line" health and economic, then estimated Julien Pouget, head of the economic department of INSEE.
This was before the tightening of restrictions imposed in mid-March in 19 departments, including those of Ile-de-France, followed by the announcement of a third confinement throughout France.
Since then, INSEE has not updated its forecast, but the Banque de France said it expected "slight growth" in gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter, below 1%. The analyst consensus compiled by Factset expects + 0,1%.
At the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, "overall these are lost quarters, which did not advance the activity compared to the delay accumulated in 2020", judge Philippe Ledent, economist at ING, who expects a stability of the GDP.
Thus, according to the Banque de France, French GDP would thus be in March still 4% below its pre-crisis level (in January and February 2020), against around -5% in December.
"We always have a very heterogeneous image" of the economy, with sectors "which remain very directly affected by health measures" such as hotels and restaurants, events, recreational activities, transport services and manufacture of transport equipment (aeronautics, automobile), details Hélène Baudchon, economist at BNP Paribas.
Conversely, some are closer to their pre-crisis level, such as real estate and non-market public services, she adds.
Industry in particular seems to have recovered well, driven by international demand, according to various indicators published in recent weeks.
Rebound postponed but not lost
Household consumption, the traditional engine of French growth, however, is unlikely to increase much compared to the end of 2020.
"In the first trimester, there was not yet the psychological effect of the vaccination. We were rather waiting and afraid of a third wave," said Philippe Ledent.
France should however post better quarterly results than its main European neighbors. A flattering comparison only due to the "timing of the management of the pandemic", according to Philippe Ledent, with a tightening of restrictions postponed in January in Germany for example.
On the other hand, the second quarter will undoubtedly be still mixed, with the reconfinement supposed to last until mid-May. "We will undoubtedly come out of it even more gradually than the previous one, so it will continue to constrain activity over a good part of the second quarter," suggests Hélène Baudchon.
This difficult start to the year, therefore, pushes back the prospect of the rebound of the French economy, which the Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire predicts "very strong" from the summer, aiming for a growth of 5% on the set of 2021.
The Banque de France expects it on 5,5%, an increase above the average expected for the euro zone.
"The rebound is postponed", but if the vaccination goes well, "the rebound potential will not be called into question," said Hélène Baudchon.
On condition that no new variant comes to threaten the exit from the health crisis. France will not then have completely turned its back on the crisis, but will slowly begin to see the end of the tunnel.