India reaches new milestone in low-carbon electricity production, but the road to neutrality will still be long

This success was hailed by the government, but according to environmental NGOs, the road to carbon neutrality for the planet's third-largest polluter is still long.

What milestone has India reached?

According to Renewable Energy Minister Pralhad Joshi, 242,8 of the country's 484,8 gigawatts (GW) of electricity generation capacity is supplied by non-fossil fuels.

At the end of June, these so-called "installed" capacities came from solar energy (116 GW), ahead of hydroelectric (54 GW), wind (52 GW), bioenergy (12 GW) and nuclear (9 GW), according to the ministry.

"This is a giant step towards a greener and cleaner India," Mr. Joshi enthused.

India, whose renewable energy production capacity has tripled over the past ten years, also crossed this threshold five years before the deadline set in 2015 in Paris.

"In terms of solar energy production capacity, India has overtaken Germany and Japan and occupies third place in the world" behind China and the United States, the ministry emphasizes.

The subcontinental giant has no intention of stopping there. It aims to reach the 500 GW mark in renewable energy production capacity by 2030.

The world's largest solar farm, with a capacity of 30 GW, is due to come into full operation by 2029 in the Indian desert of Gujarat.

Is Indian electricity "greener"?

The government's announcement is "significant," acknowledges Avantika Goswami of the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) in New Delhi, especially since India "has growing energy needs."

But, she immediately adds, we must not confuse production capacity and production.

Official figures confirm that 73% of the electricity consumed in India is still generated by highly polluting coal-fired power plants. Only 13% comes from solar panels or wind turbines.

"Current production from renewable energy remains very low," says Avantika Goswami, "which is India's main challenge."

Why is coal still king?

By definition, solar and wind energy are intermittent, subject to the constraints of nature, and inefficient when it comes to responding to peak consumption.

This would require a significant increase in storage capacity for electricity produced by the sun and wind.

"Our renewable energy capacity is growing fast: 25 to 30 GW each year," Joshi says. "But without storage, we'll waste it or have to continue relying on coal."

India currently has only 505 megawatt hours (MWh) of battery storage capacity, which is clearly insufficient. It has invested heavily to develop it.

Storage also raises the question of India's dependence on China, the world's leading producer of rare earths essential for battery manufacturing.

"It's a strategic concern," notes Harjeet Singh of the Climate Foundation.

Coal is therefore expected to remain the "king" of the electricity market for a long time to come.

Only dams or coal or nuclear power plants can currently meet the growing electricity needs of the world's most populous country (1,4 billion inhabitants).

India's coal-fired power plant fleet is young, 60% of which are less than XNUMX years old, and replacing thermal power plants would be costly.

And the reduction of CO2 emissions?

India claims to be able to meet its ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets. "We are on track to achieve this," the government says.

The bar is high: a 45% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 and neutrality by 2070.

India is responsible for 7% of global CO2 emissions, far behind China and the United States.

To improve its performance, while demand for electricity is expected to double again within two years, the CSE is insisting on greater efficiency of coal-fired power stations.

"It is by combining a form of 'decarbonization of coal' and integrating more renewable energy into the grid that we will succeed," says Avantika Goswami.