INSEE will reveal on Friday how GDP ended the year 2025

"Our economic results are encouraging," said Economy and Finance Minister Roland Lescure last Friday when presenting his New Year's wishes to economic players: "everything points to last year's growth probably being closer to 0,9% than the 0,7% we expected."

This 0,9% growth in 2025 is now predicted by most institutes such as INSEE and the Bank of France, and economists, such as Stéphane Colliac of BNP Paribas, after a surprising third quarter at +0,5%, double what was generally anticipated.

Opinions differ slightly on the fourth quarter, with estimates between 0,2% and 0,4%, but still in the green.

Furthermore, a "compromise" budget is expected to be definitively adopted next week, following the use of Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has finally decided to do.

This should lower the level of uncertainty that has persisted since the dissolution - to which, however, the economic machine seems to have finally become accustomed.

"2026 is off to a pretty good start"

In December, the Governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, estimated the cost of this uncertainty at "at least 0,2 percentage points of growth." At the time, it was unclear whether the Lecornu government would remain in power in 2026.

But the governor also noted now "a form of empowerment of economic life in relation to political life".

While 2025 will probably be a little better than expected and "2026 is starting rather well," noted Mr. Lescure on Friday, "this is largely due to companies that have continued to invest, recruit, produce and export," he assured.

"The sector that performed best in the second half of the year, particularly in December, was the manufacturing industry, still driven by the aerospace and defense sectors," observed Olivier Garnier, Director General at the Bank of France in charge of statistics, two weeks ago.

All this in a context where "the battle against inflation has been won," he added.

Stéphane Colliac also noted to AFP the good health of the aeronautics sector, which "is almost back to pre-Covid production" after having been in full production for only six months in 2025, due to delivery problems, and shortages of labor and factories.

"Under the radar"

But "production (in the aeronautics sector) has increased by an average of 15% since June," he observes.

Mr. Colliac also highlighted the good news for France that the new German economic strategy, based on massive investments, represents. Germany is indeed the leading export destination for the French economy.

Finally, he comments, "there is a sector that may be flying under the radar a little more but is in good health," namely that of "electrical, electronic and computer equipment," linked in particular to artificial intelligence: "a subject that is not only rising in the news and on the markets, but also in economic data."

The situation would remain somewhat lackluster on the household consumption side, but Mr. Colliac expects an end to the "stagnation" that lasted from mid-2024 to the third quarter of 2025, except during the Olympics: he sees the fourth quarter of 2025 at +0,3% and a "dynamic" entry into 2026.

The Bank of France, which is planning for a fourth quarter of 2025 with "at least 0,2% growth", recently raised its 2026 forecast to 1%.

INSEE, based on a fourth quarter of 2025 at 0,2%, believes that 1% growth will already be reached by the end of the first half of the year.