INSEE raises its growth forecast for the 4th quarter but maintains it at 1,1% for 2024

For the third quarter, the National Institute of Statistics still expects gross domestic product growth of 0,4%, despite a less strong Olympic Games effect than initially estimated.

In September, INSEE estimated the impact of the Olympic Games at +0,3 points of growth, but now only expects +0,2 points: the crowding-out effect weighed more than estimated in the recreational and accommodation-catering sectors.

"There have been more cancellations of shows, more cancellations of events, fewer visitors to museums," commented Dorian Roucher, head of the economic situation department at INSEE, during a press briefing. "We had quantified these effects, but they are clearly stronger than what we had anticipated."

Despite everything, in the third quarter, growth excluding the Olympic Games, known as "underlying", held up better than expected, allowing statisticians to maintain their estimate of growth of 0,4% over the period.

And with a lesser Olympic effect, the backlash in the fourth quarter is also less, and weighs down the evolution of GDP in the following quarter less.

Excluding the Olympics, growth would be 0,2% in both the second and third quarters, Mr. Roucher said.

If, in 2024, growth should mainly be driven by foreign trade, this summer, industrial production has also "rather surprised on the upside", notes the specialist.

Furthermore, looking at the period following the dissolution of the National Assembly, INSEE notes that a "peak of uncertainty" was observed "this summer in France, but not elsewhere in Europe".

"The economic uncertainty linked to the summer political context mainly affected services and trade", unlike construction and industry, the institution notes.

On the inflation side, INSEE forecasts an average inflation of 2,0% for the year 2024, compared to 2,2% in its last economic report in July. Inflation excluding tobacco should stand at 1,8% on average, compared to 2,1% previously announced.