Housing: up to -38% in construction starts by 2050 due to demographic decline

Demographic decline will lead to a decrease in the need for new housing by 2050, despite a sharp increase in households without children, according to a study by the firm Xerfi sent to AFP a few days ago.

Due to declining demand for new housing, construction starts will fall by nearly 38% by 2050, dropping from approximately 360.000 per year during recent peak periods to around 220.000 in 2050, according to this study. "Construction will focus less and less on expanding the housing stock and more and more on replacing and adapting it to climate risk, which could represent approximately 5% of needs by 2050," the press release states.

However, the demand for "compact housing" will increase, according to the study, particularly in urban and suburban areas. "Households of one or two people, without children, will represent three-quarters of households by 2050," the press release states. The entire country will be affected by this decrease in the need for new housing, but to varying degrees depending on the region, according to the study by the consulting firm Xerfi.

"The Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts, major metropolitan areas and their surrounding regions should fare better, driven by positive net migration and residential appeal linked in particular to coastal areas," the press release explains. "Conversely, non-peri-urban rural areas, former industrial zones in the North and East, and certain areas in the Central region will experience sharp declines," it emphasizes.

In June 2025, a study by the Ministry's Data and Statistical Studies Department (SDES) estimated a need for 208.000 new primary residences each year between 2020 and 2030, and then 194.000 more by 2050, taking into account several factors, including the significant increase in the number of French households. However, the SDES did not venture to estimate the number of new constructions required, and the French Building Federation (FFB) provided this estimate in October.