Growth: figures expected Thursday, with no clear sign of recovery for the construction sector

Thursday's INSEE publication is particularly anticipated. In a tense international context, it should provide a definitive answer: is the French economy still holding up or is it beginning to slow down more significantly? Initial estimates predict growth of +0,2% in the first quarter, after +0,1% at the end of 2025, a still very moderate pace.

An economy that is holding up… but without a ripple effect

On paper, the activity remains positive. Household consumption increased by +0,4% and investment by +0,3%, while foreign trade remained neutral (0,0 point), with exports at +0,5% and imports at +0,2%.

But this momentum remains fragile. The negative contribution of inventories (-0,2 points) reflects a wait-and-see attitude among businesses, in an environment marked by geopolitical uncertainties and cost pressures. In other words, growth is holding… without actually driving the economy.

For the construction industry, this type of configuration is not very favorable: without a clear acceleration of overall activity, the recovery of construction sites remains limited and dependent on still fragile engines.

Housing and construction: demand still under constraints

It is primarily households that are seeing worrying signs. While purchasing power has increased slightly (+0,5%) and gross disposable income has risen by 1,2% (after 1,3%), the savings rate remains high. This caution continues to dampen investment decisions, particularly in real estate.

In the new housing sector, already struggling, this situation is resulting in sluggish demand and order books under pressure. On the renovation side, activity is holding up better, but without any real acceleration.

In this context, even if "Western economies have probably withstood the shocks better than feared," as INSEE points out, the building sector still faces a start to the year without any real growth drivers.

Thursday's publication should therefore mainly confirm a trend already perceptible on the ground: a stable economy, but not dynamic enough to trigger a strong recovery in the construction industry.