GDP stable in the 4th quarter according to the Bank of France

"We estimate that the underlying activity" of the country, that is to say excluding the exceptional effect of the Games, "would maintain its slightly positive growth trend in the fourth quarter", estimated at 0,2 points of GDP, indicates the Banque de France in its monthly economic survey published on Tuesday.

Overall, GDP would therefore be stable at the end of the year "taking into account the backlash from the effect of the Olympic and Paralympic Games (OPG)" in Paris, estimated at -0,2 points.

This monthly survey is marked by both "resilience and uncertainty", according to Olivier Garnier, the general director in charge of statistics, economic studies and international relations at the Banque de France.

Conducted among some 8.500 companies from November 27 to December 4, "while respondents knew that the government's motion of censure had a good chance of being voted on," Mr. Garnier noted on Tuesday, it shows that "activity continued to grow slightly in November, which is an important point."

Difficulties in recruiting

But in all three sectors, industry, commercial services and construction, the uncertainty indicator shows a new rise, "linked to the economic and fiscal context", according to Mr. Garnier, climbing to a level equivalent to that of the end of 2022, during the energy crisis.

In November, activity was almost stable in industry, marked by declines in several sectors but a "significant increase" in transport, aeronautical and automotive equipment.

Clothing-textile-footwear, machinery and equipment are also growing, but rubber and plastic products, metallurgy and other industrial products are declining.

In commercial services, activity has evolved better than expected. But temporary work "which is suffering from the difficulties in the construction and automobile industries", according to the study, and advertising and market research which are suffering from "the wait-and-see attitude of customers", are down for, respectively, the third and fourth consecutive months.

In the building sector, after the October rebound linked to the postponed construction sites during the Olympic Games, activity is again declining in the structural work. It is progressing very slightly in the finishing work.

For December, companies anticipate an overall decline in industry. But the sector would progress for aeronautics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and agri-food. The automobile industry would mark time.

Finally, 32% of business leaders mentioned recruitment difficulties in November. This is an increase of one point compared to October, driven by commercial services (35%), while the proportion is stable for industry (20%) and construction (37%).

But this difficulty, which peaked at around 60% in 2022, and up to 65% in construction, has since regressed.