Further decline in boiler and heat pump sales expected in 2025

Between regulatory changes around aid and a building sector still in difficulty, Uniclima, the French organization for climate engineering, announced this Thursday February 5 a further decline in sales of boiler and heat pump equipment in 2025, after already two complicated years for the sector.

"With permits for the construction of new individual housing units more than 21% lower than the average of the previous five years, a decline in energy renovations and persistent instability in public aid, the climate engineering sector has gone through another difficult year," Uniclima said in a statement.

This analysis is based on deliveries made by manufacturers to distributors and installers.

The gas and oil boiler market thus recorded a 5,2% decrease, now limited "almost exclusively" to replacements. Conversely, biomass boilers saw slight growth (+3,7%) and showed "overall positive" momentum, despite the reduction in aid schemes (MaPrimeRénov' and CEE incentives) as well as the announcements planned for 2026, notably the exclusion of biomass boilers from the MaPrimeRénov' single-step scheme.

Solar thermal energy, meanwhile, remains "in decline," penalized by the elimination of certain combined support schemes. It is projected to fall by 18,6% in 2025.

Regarding electric heat pumps, the year remains gloomy: air/water models are still registering a slight decline (-1,8%), after a significant drop in 2024, while geothermal heat pumps continue their decline (-6,2%).

Air-to-air heat pumps, meaning small-capacity reversible air conditioners, continue to hold their own. With over 803.000 units sold (-0,1%), they remain the most popular. Uniclima points out that the entire air-to-air heat pump segment benefited from a particularly strong second half of the year (+31%), boosted by last summer's heat waves.

In the ventilation sector, sales of dual-flow MVHR systems, considered the most efficient, "have fallen to a historically low level, continuing a decline that began in 2023." According to Uniclima, "this trend is mainly due to the reduction in MaPrimeRénov' subsidies, the refocusing of public support on insulation at the expense of ventilation, and the decline in purchasing power, combined with the rising cost of renovations, which primarily penalizes the highest-quality solutions."

Faced with this situation, Uniclima believes that, "in order to sustainably revive the (climate engineering) market, the sector needs a clear, readable and stable support framework, offering visibility to households and professionals".

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.