French economy: Growth of 0,9% in 2025, driven by consumption

On Friday, INSEE published the official figures for French growth for the year 2025. With GDP growth of 0,9%, France exceeded the government's initial forecasts (0,7%) and approaches 2026 with cautious optimism.

A "robust" 2025 assessment according to Bercy

The Minister of the Economy and Finance, Roland Lescure, welcomed this result on TF1, describing the growth as "robust." This performance provides favorable momentum for 2026, the year for which the government is forecasting GDP growth of at least 1%.

However, in the last quarter of 2025, activity showed a slight slowdown with an increase of 0,2%, compared to 0,5% in the previous quarter.

European comparison: France versus its neighbors

While the eurozone is projected to grow by 1,5% overall in 2025, national dynamics remain disparate:

Country	Annual growth 2025	Q4 2025 Growth
Spain	+ 2,8%	+ 0,8%
Eurozone	+ 1,5%	(Initial estimate)
France	+ 0,9%	+ 0,2%
Italy	+ 0,7%	-
Germany	+ 0,2%	+ 0,3%

The drivers of the economy at the end of the year

The French economic landscape in this last quarter is marked by several key factors:

Household consumption After a long period of stagnation, it is now rising again (+0,3%) and is once more becoming the driving force of activity.
Investments : A clear slowdown is observed (+0,2% compared to +0,7% in Q3).
Inventory cycle : After a third quarter of overproduction, companies (particularly in the aeronautics sector) drew on their stocks, mechanically slowing industrial production (+0,1%).

"It's a natural economic cycle," says Maxime Darmet, an economist at Allianz Trade, while emphasizing the fragility of the industrial recovery.

Outlook for 2026: Between hope and budgetary challenges

Although the political climate seems to be calming down with the imminent adoption of the budget via article 49.3 by Sébastien Lecornu, the structural challenges remain.

The risk of a downward revision

According to Sylvain Bersinger (Bersingéco), France's structural growth has weakened over the years. He warns that geopolitical risks and market volatility (cryptocurrencies, gold, stocks) could force a downward revision of the 2026 forecasts.

The urgency of public debt

Current growth is not sufficient to reduce the public deficit, projected at 5% of GDP for 2026 (compared to 5,4% in 2025). Carine Camby, from the Court of Auditors, reiterates the urgent need to reduce spending to preserve the fiscal sovereignty France's struggle with the growing burden of debt.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.