France should avoid recession until 2028, according to the Governor of the Bank of France.

François Villeroy de Galhau, who will take over as head of the Apprentis d'Auteuil foundation in June, indicates that despite the zero growth in the first quarter, revealed Thursday by INSEE, and inflation rising from 1,1% year-on-year in February to 2,5% in April (in harmonized European data), "France should maintain slowed but positive growth, and avoid recession" until 2028 inclusive.

Inflation, "after a surge" in 2026, would then fall below 2%.

However, while the Bank of France published three economic scenarios in March depending on the duration of the war, Mr. Villeroy de Galhau emphasizes "the unpredictability of the duration and magnitude of the shock", and now considers it "wise to prepare for each of the three scenarios".

At worst, growth would be 0,3% this year, and inflation (in harmonized European data) would average 3,3% over the year.

He insists that any aid measures related to rising fuel prices should be "temporary and extremely targeted" to those who need them.

But "our economic outlook cannot be limited to going from crisis to crisis," he writes in this letter, which is somewhat his testament as governor.

In it, he studies the performance of the French economy over the past fifteen years in an unprecedented way, observing that annual growth has averaged 1,1%, "close to the average of the Eurozone" (1,2%), itself "significantly lower than that of the United States" (2,3%).

Despite "poor public finances", which he insists need to be rectified, Mr. Villeroy de Galhau highlights French strengths, notably "good private finances", those of businesses and households.

He believes that France could increase its potential growth from 1% currently to 1,5% in less than ten years, to the benefit of employment, purchasing power and public finances: "We still need to be able to overcome (...) the many internal French controversies of the moment".

He invites "the collective debate" to "look more at our neighbors, better support the diagnoses, and deduce medium-term goals pursued with perseverance. May this Letter contribute to that," he hopes.