France must prepare for a warming of 4°C, according to elected officials and civil society

The National Council for Ecological Transition (CNTE) - which brings together representatives of local authorities, NGOs, unions, employers and parliamentarians - has adopted an opinion on this subject.

It "proposes to retain, for the trajectory of adaptation to climate change, the general hypothesis of a global warming of 3°C by the end of the century, crossing 1,5°C in 2030 and 2°C in 2050".

"We are on a trajectory towards 3°C at the global level and therefore for metropolitan France that means +4°C", specified the environmental senator and vice-president of the specialized commission of the CNTE Ronan Dantec, stressing that the The opinion was adopted "unanimously".

"It says a consensus today of French society in its awareness that we must face the reality of this climate change, and in a lucid way", he added, presenting this opinion to journalists.

The warming is indeed more marked in metropolitan France compared to the world average. The situation will also vary in Overseas France depending on the geographical location of the territories, underlined Ronan Dantec:

"Saint-Pierre and Miquelon will go beyond +4°C and other territories with the inertia of the ocean will be closer to +3°C, which is the world average".

The opinion follows the recommendations of the Minister for Ecological Transition, Christophe Béchu, who has been calling for a few months to get out of "denial" and to prepare France for a possible warming of 4°C.

"Not that that means that we are giving up on climate ambitions. We must act as if everything depended on us but we must adapt by measuring that everything does not depend on us", he judged Thursday.

The policies currently in place around the world suggest a rise in global temperatures of 2,8°C by the end of the century, the UN estimated last October. The implementation of the current commitments made by the various States to reduce their emissions will only reduce this increase to 2,4-2,6°C increase by this horizon.

The world is thus far from the objective of the Paris agreement, which is to limit global warming to well below 2°C and preferably to 1,5°C.

France is preparing its third National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change (PNACC). The previous version (2018-2022) was based on less pessimistic assumptions of an average temperature increase of 2°C compared to the pre-industrial era.

This adaptation plan will have components concerning health, the economy and agriculture, the continuity of infrastructure and essential services, and the protection of natural environments.

The minister also specified that he was going to present a "national heat wave management plan" before the end of May, with dozens of measures to, for example, provide a framework for outdoor working conditions or school exams in the event of of heat wave.