France's greenhouse gas emissions reduction will continue in 2025, but climate action must be intensified.

Annual greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decrease by 1,5% in 2025 (or -5,5 Mt CO₂e) compared to 2024, reaching 363,7 Mt CO₂e. This result confirms a previous provisional estimate published in January. Even though emissions reach their lowest level since 1990, this confirms a slowdown after the sharp declines recorded in 2022 (-3,9%) and 2023 (-6,8%).

This reduction remains below the necessary rate of -5% per year until 2030 to meet our climate commitments.

In response, the draft National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC) 3, published last December, sets the framework for strengthening the decarbonization trajectory and ensuring the achievement of climate objectives by 2030. This strategic document is entering its finalization phase, following the opinions issued by the bodies, and should be adopted by this summer.

A decline in emissions that was confirmed in the second, third and fourth quarters after a rising start to the year.

After a slight increase in the first quarter of 2025 (+0,8%), greenhouse gas emissions then decreased in the second (-2,5%), third (-3,3%) and fourth (-1,5%) quarters of 2025 compared to the same periods in 2024.

This decrease in emissions for the year 2025 is mainly due to a decrease in emissions from:

• Industry (-3,5%, or -2,2 Mt CO2e), due to a likely slowdown in activity in certain high-emitting sectors;
• The transport sector (-1,4%, or -1,7 Mt CO2e), the reduction of which is mainly driven by the decrease in emissions from diesel heavy goods vehicles;
• Agriculture (-1,2%, or -0,9 Mt CO2e), explained in particular by the reduction of emissions related to cattle farming;
• The building sector (-1,5%, or -0,9 Mt CO2e), due to a reduction in natural gas consumption and, to a lesser extent, a decrease in domestic fuel oil consumption;
• The energy sector, for its part, is experiencing a slight increase (+0,5%, or +0,2 Mt CO2e), linked to the resumption of activity in the refining sub-sector in 2025.
• The electricity production sub-sector, meanwhile, experienced a less marked decline (-0,5 MtCO2e; i.e. -5%) than that observed in 2024, due to an energy mix that continued its decarbonization.

Accelerate the transition to meet the 2030 trajectory

The estimated emissions for the whole year 2025 would allow compliance with the indicative annual carbon budget of the SNBC 2 in force for 2025 (374 Mt CO2e[1]).

But this pace is still insufficient. The draft of the 3rd edition of the SNBC is clear: to achieve a 50% reduction in gross emissions by 2030 compared to 1990, France must reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 5% per year until 2030. It is therefore urgent to accelerate this pace of emissions reductions.

Decarbonization is no longer just a climate imperative, but also a matter of sovereignty and competitiveness. Fossil fuels, in addition to increasing our carbon footprint, weaken our economy due to the €60 billion in annual imports they represent. They expose households and businesses to price volatility and make us dependent on geopolitical crises, such as the current crisis in the Middle East and the pre-war crisis in Ukraine.

The electrification plan announced by the Government during the adoption of the Multiannual Energy Programme (PPE) will be a concrete response, offering solutions to households and businesses to accelerate the electrification of energy uses and reduce our dependence on imported fossil fuels. It covers transportation, buildings, digital technology, and industry. It will prioritize the most vulnerable populations and professions most reliant on fossil fuels.

For Monique Barbut, Minister for Ecological Transition, Biodiversity and International Negotiations on Climate and Nature: “The projected reduction in emissions by 2025 is confirmed: this is good news, but it remains insufficient. Yet, we already know the solutions. The energy crisis we have been experiencing for the past few weeks and the recently announced electrification plan underscore the urgent need to abandon fossil fuels. Such a transition would reduce our greenhouse gas emissions while strengthening our energy independence, improving our trade balance, and lowering costs for citizens and businesses.”

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.