The decline in greenhouse gas emissions shows signs of slowing in France

From July to September, French greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased by 0,5% compared to summer 2023, after a decrease of 5% and 2,2% during the first two quarters, announced Citepa on Friday, the organization mandated to draw up France's carbon footprint.

Over the first nine months of 2024, emissions remain down 2,4%, excluding carbon sinks, much less than the 6% drop recorded last year from January to September.

In the end, 2023 ended with a 5,8% drop in emissions compared to 2022. Logically, 2024 should be further down, but a less good year.

The last year of increase was in 2021 (+6,4%) due to the post-Covid recovery.

This slowdown "reminds us that we must not let our guard down", even if "fortunately (it) still leaves us on the right trajectory" to meet the objective of reducing France's emissions by 50% by 2030 compared to 1990, stressed the Minister for Ecological Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, on RTL on Friday.

Conversely, this slowdown "should act as a real electroshock for the government", reacted the Climate Action Network, through its program director Anne Bringault.

"Political instability and the slowdowns, or even the halting of ecological transition policies and budget cuts are jeopardizing our climate objectives, but also the sectors of the future in our country and leaving the French in a costly dependence on fossil fuels," she added.

The Citepa data, which is currently provisional, does not include the absorption of CO2 by carbon sinks, such as forests and soils, which are seriously degraded due to global warming and pollution, but are nevertheless essential in achieving the objectives.

Heating in September

The slowdown in the decline comes from the construction and transport sectors, whose emissions have started to rise again.

The third quarter saw in particular an increase in road traffic emissions (+3% compared to 1,1), which nevertheless remain well below the summers of 2023 to 2019, notes Citepa.

On this subject, the minister once again raised the possibility of tightening the conditions governing the renewal of companies' vehicle fleets.

"Companies buy half as many electric cars as households and so they are not playing the game. We will have to encourage them to play the game," said Ms Pannier-Runacher.

But it is above all the construction sector which is weighing down the balance sheet, with an increase of 11,8% in the 3rd quarter, due to a jump in heating emissions in September.

On the good news side, the energy sector continues to contribute to the reduction dynamic (-12,9%), thanks to reduced use of fossil fuels in electricity production.

Another positive point is that domestic air transport saw its emissions reduce by 4,1% in the 3rd quarter and by 4,2% from January to September, amplifying the 2023 drop over this period (-3,5%).

The manufacturing industry also continues to reduce its emissions, even if the pace is slowing: -1,3% in the 3rd quarter, after -2,8% in the second.

For agriculture, Citepa specifies that "only part of the developments" is estimated and that the "quasi-stagnation of emissions (+0,3%)" over the first nine months "remains a partial overview".

What carbon budget?

Citepa recalls that in 2023, all sectors had contributed to the decline and that "this multifactorial dynamic must continue" to meet the objectives of the third National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC).

The trajectory to reach the new provisional annual emissions target of 270 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2030, excluding carbon sinks, implies a reduction of 4,7% per year between 2022 and 2030, indicates Citepa.

France, which must contribute to the European objective of -55% of emissions by 2030 compared to 1990, had not respected its first carbon budget (2015-2018). It had revised its ambitions downwards for the 2nd SNBC (2019-2023) whose assessment must be drawn up in 2025.