France's 2050 energy futures: what if a path other than all-electric was desirable?

By 2035, the electrification of uses will accelerate and we will not yet have new nuclear power or certain large offshore wind farms. RTE wants to be reassuring by indicating that the electrical system will be there and that our climate objectives will be achieved if a large number of very proactive hypotheses are respected (availability of the nuclear fleet, massive development of ENR, reduction of consumption, etc.).

Looking more closely, vigilance remains required because the objectives to be met are extremely ambitious to respect the assumptions made by RTE and to guarantee the country's security of supply. In 2030, in the building sector, there could be a shortage of several GW of capacity to meet the demand for power during winter. This problem of managing the "winter peak" could be greatly exacerbated if we have to face possible hazards which can accumulate (major geopolitical crisis, prolonged wave of extreme cold, systemic problem in a mode of production, non-achievement of our objectives of sobriety or energy efficiency, etc.).

Part of the energy component linked to the development of renewable gases does not seem to have been taken into account to its fair potential, even though the complementarity of energy vectors and the development of green gases (renewable, storable and locally produced energy) are assets for the resilience of our French and European energy systems. The same goes for the hybridization of systems, a solution which seems to have been undervalued for the building sector, despite the services provided for managing the “winter peak”.

Coénove carried out, with the Artelys firm, a study for 2030 which highlights that a more balanced scenario in terms of complementarity of energies appears more advantageous for the community. This scenario, which promotes the generalization of the THPE (Very High Energy Performance) boiler, the greening of gas and the hybridization of equipment, makes it possible to achieve the ambitions defined by the SGPE (General Secretariat for Ecological Planning) in terms of reduction in CO2 emissions for the building sector, with a lower overall cost and better robustness to hazards while preserving the purchasing power of the French and the choice of solutions for households.

Coénove therefore deplores that the massive electrification of uses seems the only recognized path to achieving climate objectives even though other scenarios exist, more balanced, secure and optimized in full costs, particularly in the highly temperature-sensitive building sector. .

For Jean-Charles COLAS-ROY, President of Coénove: “By 2035, the most balanced scenario will involve reducing consumption, chosen sobriety and energy efficiency as well as the rapid greening of all our energy production. Biogas, for example, is an asset for our country because it is a renewable, storable and locally produced energy vector. Only the complementarity of energies will allow us to achieve carbon neutrality while guaranteeing security of supply and optimized costs for consumers and public finances. »