Energy transition 2026: a French market undergoing profound transformation

The French energy transition plan is pursuing an ambitious trajectory, aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050, the accelerated development of renewable energies, and the electrification of energy uses. In this context, energy prices remain volatile, highlighting the importance of securing supplies and improving energy efficiency. Despite these challenges, regulatory delays, grid constraints, local project acceptance, and the need for massive investments mean that the energy transition remains a strategic priority requiring the active commitment of industrial and financial stakeholders.

Looking ahead to 2026, the market is expected to evolve in an environment still marked by economic and regulatory uncertainties, but with stronger fundamentals than in 2025, thus offering a favorable framework for new investment and development opportunities.

For Mladena Pavlova, consultant at the LCP Delta firm: “The energy transition markets are entering a phase of maturity. After the turbulence observed in 2024 and 2025, the challenge is no longer just to accelerate, but to stabilize. Electric vehicles, solar energy, and heat pumps remain essential pillars of decarbonization, provided they benefit from clear regulatory frameworks, consistent support, and sufficient visibility for both industry and consumers.”

Electric vehicles in 2026: price wars and challenges for European manufacturers

After a difficult year for electric vehicles in 2024, 2025 acted as a "reset" year: sales rebounded in Europe following a decline in registrations, accompanied by a strategic readjustment among players in the EV ecosystem and charging infrastructure. However, this recovery unfolded against a backdrop of contrasts, with a slowdown in the deployment of public charging stations and the first signs of stagnation in some countries after a period of overdevelopment.

The electric vehicle market is expected to continue to grow in 2026, but in a context of increased competition and with the need for players to optimize their business models.

• The year 2026 will be marked by price wars, expanding industrial capacities and an increasingly delicate balance for European manufacturers in the face of the rise of Chinese manufacturers, capable of offering electric models at more accessible prices.
• In France, the outlook remains more cautious: after slower growth in 2025 due to reduced incentives, forecasts have been revised downwards amid persistent political uncertainty. At this stage, approximately 6 million electric vehicles are expected by 2030, reflecting a temporary slowdown rather than a reversal of the energy transition.

The photovoltaic market: France, a driving force behind European collective self-consumption

By 2025, the European photovoltaic market had undergone a gradual readjustment, with dynamics varying across segments and countries. The market was moving towards integrated models combining solar and battery systems, trends that indicated a refocusing on self-consumption. This model was expected to become the primary use case for solar photovoltaic installations, both in residential and commercial/industrial sectors.

Residential solar power has slowed, but its long-term potential remains intact. In France, where residential solar power is historically less developed than elsewhere in Europe, rising electricity prices and reduced feed-in tariffs are now encouraging self-consumption, opening up new growth prospects in the medium term.

The C&I segment in solar energy stands out for its dynamism, driven by regulatory requirements (solarization targets among others) and rising electricity prices. In 2026, growth is expected to be fueled by the rise of collective self-consumption, which is gradually establishing itself as a structuring model in Europe.

Although still in its early stages, collective self-consumption (CSC) is becoming a key lever for bringing production and consumption closer together, reducing bills, and making the electricity system more flexible. CSC is progressing rapidly, and France is the fastest-growing market in Europe.

For Mladena Pavlova, consultant at the LCP Delta firm: “The collective self-consumption market will experience double-digit growth in Europe by 2026. We anticipate that France will be the fastest-growing market until 2030 (in terms of capacity), due to the dominance of large-scale projects and the increasing average size of systems. However, growth depends on stable regulatory and tariff frameworks that provide a clear vision for everyone. Any changes could disrupt adoption.”

Heat pumps: after three years of decline, a rebound is expected in France in 2026

In this evolving landscape, the heat pump market also illustrates the persistent difficulties facing the heating sector. The years are following a similar pattern for the European heating industry. 2025 marked the third consecutive year of decline for the European heating market, reaching its lowest level in several years. However, the situation has generally improved for heat pumps used for heating, driven by strong demand in certain markets such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and Poland. In France, sales of heating equipment reached a historic low. Although heat pump sales declined in 2025 due to political instability, subsidies, and a low consumer confidence index, the drop was less pronounced than in previous years (less than 10% compared to 2024).

In 2026, the heat pump market is expected to begin a rebound in France after several years of contraction.

• A recovery that will be based on the expected boost in new construction, particularly individual houses, as well as generous aid via MaPrimeRénov' and the new CEE framework, which will continue to make heat pumps economically attractive despite the possible rise in electricity prices linked to the end of ARENH.
• France will be the first major heat pump market to reserve its subsidy fund for heat pumps manufactured in Europe (via Energy Savings Certificates), which could set a precedent for similar policies in other countries.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.