In Cuba, in energy crisis, the difficult transition to renewable energies

Despite the oft-announced goals of transitioning to renewable energy, a guarantee of energy independence for the communist island, progress has been minimal.

"In 2022, fossil fuels accounted for approximately 95% of electricity production, while renewable energies accounted for the remaining 5%," recalled the American environmental NGO, Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), in a report published in April 2024.

But these figures have not changed for ten years: in 2014, the state daily Granma reported that the island produced 4,3% of its electricity from renewable sources, compared to 95,7% from fossil fuels.

At the time, the country already had plans to generate 24% of its energy from renewables by 2030, but obsolete infrastructure, a prolonged economic crisis and investment choices have slowed any significant progress.

Cuban economist Pedro Monreal recently stated on X that "the collapse of the Cuban electro-energy system" is due to "excessive investments associated with tourism" and "neglect of the country's dilapidated infrastructure."

"Over the period 2020-June 2024, investments mainly linked to tourism (...) represent on average 38,9% of the country's total investment, compared to 9,4% for investments in electricity, gas and water," he stressed.

The aging of thermoelectric plants, many of which are more than 40 years old, and the reduction in oil imports from Venezuela, the island's main ally, over the past two years, have placed Cuba and its 10 million inhabitants in a situation of extreme vulnerability.

According to EDF's report on adaptation to climate change, in 2022, "48% of fossil fuels used to produce electricity" in Cuba were imported. However, the island is finding it increasingly difficult to ensure its supply of crude oil necessary for the operation of its electricity system.

Caracas "instead of sending crude to Cuba, has started sending it to China because it has to repay a large part of its debt to that country," Glen Sartain, managing director of West Monroe, a US-based energy consulting firm, told AFP.

The government also points to the strengthening since 2021 of the American embargo, in force since 1962, "the primary cause of (its) inability to access international financial markets for fuel".

"Important investments"

Faced with the worsening energy crisis in recent months, with power cuts lasting up to 20 p.m. daily and increased risks of social discontent, the Cuban authorities have made numerous announcements about a change in the country's energy matrix in favor of renewable energies.

"Today we have a group of signed agreements, with guarantees, that will allow us to reach more than 2.000 megawatts in less than two years," Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel announced in the press in May, without specifying with which country the agreements had been signed.

Operators from China, Vietnam and the European Union are engaged at various levels with the authorities to develop projects in the country, according to several sources close to the matter.

Since the beginning of 2024, the island has installed nearly a million Chinese photovoltaic panels and plans to install 3,6 million more within two years, according to authorities.

Especially since Cuba has abundant natural resources, "the sun, agricultural and forest biomass", recalled Rosell Guerra Campana, director of renewable energies at the Ministry of Energy and Mines, at the end of 2023.

The country "has made great progress in the field of biomass fuels, which consists of transforming sugar cane into gas, which can generate electricity," stresses Glen Sartain.

"But we also have to keep in mind that wind turbines and solar energy are very expensive," which complicates investment in a crisis-ridden economy, he adds.

For the NGO EDF, "meeting Cuba's energy challenges in the context of the economic crisis will not be easy", and "will require significant capital investments, which are difficult to obtain given the real and perceived risks of investing in Cuba".