China's CO2 emissions fall in March, peak may be reached

The decline recorded in March stems from an increase in renewable energy capacity, which covered almost all of the growth in electricity demand over this period, and also from a collapse in construction.

If renewable energy capacity continues to grow at record levels, Chinese emissions could have peaked in 2023, according to analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta of the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). ).

In the study published on the specialist site Carbon Brief, the researcher indicates that China's carbon dioxide emissions fell by 3% in March 2024 compared to the previous year, according to an analysis of official data.

In the first quarter, emissions are even higher than those of the previous year, but this is explained by a still very low comparison base in January and February 2023 after the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions in December 2022.

The month of March is “the first month to give a clear indication of emissions trends after the rebound” post-Covid, according to the study published Tuesday. It also matches last year's projections and suggests key trends.

Emissions from the electricity sector have stabilized thanks to increased solar and wind power production, while steel production fell by 8% and cement production by 22% compared to the previous year. previous year, reflecting a slowdown in the construction sector which is expected to continue.

The growing adoption of electric vehicles in China - 10% of cars on the road according to seller data - continues to weigh on oil demand.

If demand for electricity has increased, in particular due to the purchase of air conditioners, almost 90% of the additional demand in March was covered by renewable energy sources, underlines Lauri Myllyvirta.

Despite growth in capacity, wind and solar power still represent only 15% of electricity production in China, and authorities are working to better integrate these sources into the grid.

However, China's emissions trajectory remains uncertain, with experts disagreeing on whether the installation of renewable energy capacity will increase or slow down in the future.

Government targets for economic growth also suggest that Beijing could still see an increase in emissions, the study found.

China also continues to invest in coal, and although coal capacity growth slowed slightly in the first quarter of the current year, a significant number of power plants are still being upgraded. construction.