CO2 emissions fell in China in the first quarter

The Asian giant, the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) that contribute to climate change, plans to reach peak emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.

China has invested heavily in renewable energy, building nearly twice as much wind and solar capacity as all other countries combined, according to a study published last year.

Driven by new wind, solar and nuclear capacity, the country saw its CO2 emissions fall by 1,6% year-on-year in the first quarter, according to Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a research institute based in Finland.

Emissions also fell by 1% over the twelve months to March 2025, according to the same source.

This analysis is based on official figures and trade data.

Chinese emissions have declined in the past, but these reductions were linked to a drop in demand, such as during lockdown periods during the Covid-19 pandemic.

This time, the decline came despite a 2,5% increase in total electricity demand in the first quarter, according to the report, published in the specialist media Carbon Brief.

Uncertain future

"Now, renewable energy is not only beginning to meet growing demand, but also to reduce emissions," Li Shuo, an expert at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told AFP.

"This gives hope for an earlier-than-expected peak in Chinese emissions," he added, "and should lay the foundations for an ambitious target" for 2035, which Beijing must submit to the UN in the coming months.

Electricity generation generated 5,8% fewer emissions in the first quarter, offsetting increases in coal-related emissions in metallurgy and chemicals.

The report, however, warns of a possible increase if Beijing decides to stimulate high-carbon-emitting sectors in response to its trade war with the United States.

According to the study published Thursday, China also remains "well behind" in meeting one of its important 2030 targets, namely reducing its carbon intensity (CO2 emissions relative to GDP) by 65% ​​compared to 2005.

"The future trajectory of China's CO2 emissions remains uncertain and will depend on trends in each sector of its economy, as well as its response to US tariffs," Myllyvirta said.

The Chinese and Americans have agreed to a 90-day truce in the heavy customs surcharges they have imposed on each other, but the outlines of a final agreement remain unclear.

New climate commitments

China is seeking to establish itself as a global leader in the fight against climate change, particularly in the face of Donald Trump's openly climate-sceptic United States, which has withdrawn its country from the Paris Climate Agreement.

In late April, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged that China's efforts to combat global warming "will not slow down" "regardless of how the international situation evolves."

Mr. Xi also indicated that China would announce its new climate commitments for 2035 before COP30 (the UN climate conference) in November and that these commitments would cover all greenhouse gases, not just carbon dioxide.

Coal remains a key part of China's energy mix.

Despite the boom in renewable energy, China has launched the construction of 94,5 gigawatts of coal-fired power plants by 2024, or 93% of the global total last year, according to a report published in February by CREA and the US-based Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

China announced last month that its wind and solar power capacity, by the first quarter of 2025, had for the first time exceeded that of thermal installations, mainly generated by coal-fired power plants.