Building the future by 2035-2040: a prospective study to imagine the possible futures of the building sector and better anticipate its evolution

By combining industry expertise, a sociological approach, and collective reflection, through four contrasting scenarios and an in-depth analysis of key trends, the study explores the sector's possible futures and offers concrete suggestions for better anticipating its evolution and strengthening its attractiveness. This study is made available to training organizations in the construction and public works sector and to building professionals to guide their thinking and actions across all regions.

Strategic challenges within a context of profound transformation

In a context where the construction sector faces profound challenges (ecological emergency, sluggish attractiveness, employment pressures, and technological and digital transformations), the CCCA-BTP sought to address the aspirations of younger generations by conducting the study "Building the Future by 2035-2040." Part of a strategic foresight approach, it represents a decision-making tool for envisioning now a more resilient, more attractive sector, better connected to the aspirations of new generations and the needs of businesses.

A rigorous and collaborative methodology for thinking about the changes of tomorrow

This approach is the result of a collective reflection carried out by a multidisciplinary working group throughout 2024, to combine expertise, compare viewpoints, share research and analyses and co-construct several scenarios on youth and work in the building sector by 2035-2040. The reflection was initially based on defining a common background describing structural trends considered inevitable by 2040.

Based on this, twelve key variables were identified as likely to strongly influence young people's relationship to work in the construction sector. By combining these hypotheses, four contrasting scenarios emerged, conceived as immersive narratives, embodied and illustrated by the experiences of eight young people in 2035. By 2035-2040, regardless of the scenario considered, highly structuring trends will be at work within French society.

The construction sector in 2040: four scenarios imagined to prepare for the future

By 2040, younger generations will inevitably have to live in a France that is older, more degraded in terms of climate and environment, and more technologically advanced. This context could impact young people's values, mindset, and well-being. Furthermore, the construction sector itself will face a number of transformations related to the structure of businesses and their workforce needs.

The construction sector will therefore face significant pressures in the labor market due to mass retirements and difficulties in attracting a sufficient workforce. The shift towards energy-efficient renovation, while offering opportunities, could exacerbate these tensions if labor needs are not met quickly.

• Scenario 1: "The construction industry in search of young talent: a persistent challenge"
• Scenario 2: "Between opportunities and precariousness: a divided youth"
• Scenario 3: "Buildings: a sustainably attractive potential for young people"
• Scenario 4: "The War of Talents"

Key lessons learned from the scenarios to act now

The scenarios developed are not intended to predict the future, but they already allow us to draw several important lessons about the possible evolutions of the sector. Working conditions play a central role; depending on the assumptions, they can improve significantly or, conversely, deteriorate, particularly under the influence of external factors such as climate change.

Another key point is, of course, the attractiveness of the sector. In some scenarios, it remains a constant challenge, while in others, it improves thanks to a profound transformation of practices, the values ​​upheld by companies, or clearer career opportunities for young people.

The idea of ​​a building sector reinventing itself around ecological issues is a promising scenario, because it could create a real virtuous circle: attracting more young people, giving meaning back to work and at the same time responding to major environmental challenges.

These scenarios show that there is no single future, nor a single path. The value lies precisely in being able to project ourselves into the future, to identify levers for action today, in order to guide practices and actions in the right direction, within a framework of strategic thinking in the face of uncertainty.

The identified courses of action and the levers to activate

Actors in the construction sector can rely on several levers. One of the most obvious is the constant improvement of the quality of working life, in particular by always promoting employee rights, constantly guaranteeing health and safety at work to reduce occupational burnout, training young micro-entrepreneurs in business management, to create a dynamic that encourages younger generations to envision themselves in it.

There is also a real challenge in making these professions more attractive. We need to succeed in making them more visible, highlighting their environmental impact, and promoting the career prospects, pathways, and opportunities they offer, particularly to young people, by strengthening communication campaigns, creating school-business partnerships, and so on. This is a strategic lever for addressing the talent shortage we are already seeing.

Another key focus is innovation, particularly in the environmental sphere. Adopting more sustainable practices and integrating environmental considerations into construction methods addresses a pressing societal need while aligning the sector with the values ​​of a new generation. This can truly transform the image of the building industry for the better.

Awareness-raising work also needs to be carried out through training, in particular by strengthening and professionalizing skills transfers, supporting trainers in their transition to roles as coaches and facilitators, adapted to new teaching methods, offering flexible, modular, personalized training adapted to the expectations of young people, or training training organizations in financial engineering to identify and secure new sources of funding.

Finally, the last lever to activate is that of inclusion and diversity, in particular by developing campaigns highlighting the diversity of professions and profiles (women and people in career transition), by offering awareness modules and practical tools to employers to promote a better acculturation of companies to the issues of diversity, by setting up specific programs for the integration of unaccompanied minors, etc.

A mobilization of local stakeholders to make this study a lever for transformation

One of the main objectives of this study is to move beyond mere observation or theoretical projection, and instead to initiate concrete action on the ground. To this end, the CCCA-BTP will organize workshops in various regions, providing opportunities for discussion and reflection based on the scenarios developed.

The idea is to give stakeholders in the building and training sectors the means to plan ahead, to think about the levers they can activate today to promote the most desirable trajectories and to provoke a real collective awareness around a shared vision of the future to sustainably transform the sector.

The study is available for download at https://www.ccca-btp.fr/fr/nos-rapports-detudes