The IEA predicts a surge in renewable energy and a possible peak in oil production "around 2030".

Renewables, driven by solar electricity, are seeing their demand grow "faster than any other major energy source, in all scenarios" presented by the IEA in its annual report on the World Energy Outlook (WEO 2025).

In this highly anticipated report, published as the UN climate conference COP30 is being held in Belem, the IEA presents three scenarios for the future of energy: one based on current country policies, outlining a "cautious" vision of the pace of the energy transition; another including measures to be adopted to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050; and a median scenario including measures already announced by states.

In the latter, the United States - due to the announced policy changes - will have 35% less renewable capacity in 2035 compared to the 2024 forecast, "but globally renewables continue their rapid expansion".

China remains the largest market - and largest manufacturer - ensuring 45 to 60% of deployment over the next ten years, in all scenarios.

However, the paths diverge regarding energy sharing: in the median scenario, coal demand peaks and oil stabilizes "around 2030". In contrast, gas continues to grow during the 2030s, contrary to previous forecasts, due to new US policy and lower prices.

Two years ago, the IEA mentioned a peak in demand for all fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas) as early as this decade.

In the scenario based on current policies - the most conservative - demand for coal begins to decline before the end of this decade but that of oil and gas continues to grow until 2050.

The IEA is thus reviving this scenario, which was abandoned in 2020 in the context of a global momentum for the energy transition.

His return has been widely discussed by climate activists, some of whom see it as a sign of American "pressure" on the IEA. "In short, the IEA is regressing," commented Stephan Singer of the CAN International network.

For Rachel Cleetus, of the Union of Concerned Scientists, interviewed in Belem, this scenario "is not representative of the reality of the acceleration (of the transition) in the world, its motivations are political".

From the IEA's perspective, these multiple scenarios draw on policy changes and economic uncertainties, also reflecting "governments' visions for the future of energy" which "differ widely," agency director Fatih Birol told the press.

"Two critical issues"

The OECD agency, the IEA, is now in the crosshairs of the pro-oil and climate-skeptic Trump administration.

"We will reform the way the IEA works or we will withdraw," US Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned in July.

The institution, created in 1974 to help rich countries cope with the oil shock, has since the 2020s produced scenarios describing a decline in fossil fuels and modeled the path to follow to achieve carbon neutrality, a condition for curbing warming.

The report, which calls for cooperation and acknowledges governments' concern to ensure energy security, addresses many issues: booming demand for energy, particularly electricity, driven by air conditioning, data centers and clean vehicles, and also the challenges of supplying critical metals.

And above all, on "two critical issues, the world is falling short of the goals it has set for itself," he insists: "universal access to energy and climate change."

All three scenarios will push the world beyond 1,5°C of warming, and even to almost 3°C ​​by 2100 in the most ambitious scenario. Only the "carbon neutrality" scenario would allow us, in the longer term, to return to below this 1,5°C threshold, emphasizes the IEA, which notes that 2024 was the warmest year on record.

In this scenario, synonymous with strong adoption of low-carbon energies, there would be "no overall need (for investments) in new conventional fields" to meet oil and gas demand, said Tim Gould, IEA Chief Energy Economist.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.