Birth rate, immigration: the pension watchdog will revise its assumptions

In a guidance letter published on its website, the COR emphasizes that "recent observations" regarding fertility rates and net migration "deviate significantly from the assumptions made" until then.

The current fertility rate is lower than "the central scenario", with 1,56 children per woman, compared to 1,8 so far according to COR forecasts.

Conversely, "the net migration is significantly higher (on average +186.000 people per year over the last five known years - 2018 to 2022 -, compared to +80.000 in the central projections)", according to the COR.

The 41 "wise men" who make up the COR (parliamentarians, social partners, senior civil servants, economists...) will have to decide on the new assumptions adopted from April onwards, so that the next annual report of the COR, in June, can be built on their basis.

"The financial diagnosis of this next annual report could be significantly revised compared to the June 2025 report," warns the COR document.

With a fertility rate of 1,6 children per woman, pension spending would remain unchanged as a percentage of GDP "until the mid-2040s but would then increase".

In 2070, pension expenditures would thus account for 14,8% of GDP (14,2% with 1,8 children per woman) indicates the COR, which specifies that the deficit would also increase by 0,6 pt of GDP.

"Conversely, a larger net migration would immediately translate into higher resources and therefore an improvement in the balance," explains the COR, without giving any numerical forecasts.

"This effect on the balance would be mitigated in the longer term by increased spending resulting from a higher number of retirees than in the baseline scenario," it adds. Life expectancy projections will also play a key role in the forecasts, the institution warns.