Behind the scenes of growth: how INSEE reports on the French economy

Public debt and deficit, gross domestic product (GDP), household consumption, business investment, imports and exports... These macroeconomic indicators are Marie Leclair's daily bread.

Since February, she has headed the department at the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee), which produces the barometers of the country's economic activity.

"We feel it is useful to shed light on the public debate," with "correct figures," enthuses the 47-year-old statistician, whom AFP met in her office on the fifth floor of an imposing building in Montrouge, south of Paris.

A key indicator, GDP, which measures whether or not there is growth, is calculated every three months. A first estimate is published 30 days after the end of a quarter based on information that is still "partial" (VAT returns from companies, data from supermarket tills, etc.).

The table is then completed to give "more reliable and more detailed" results, 30 days after this first estimate, by including elements on household purchasing power, company profit margins or the financing needs of public administrations.

Sometimes the figures are surprising, as in the third quarter when growth (+0,5%) exceeded, despite political instability, the forecasts made by another INSEE department.

"Little snippets of history"

Each year at the end of May, the estimates for the three previous years are revised. In May 2025, the estimates for 2024, 2023, and 2022 were revised. The figure for 2022 is now considered final.

"After a while, you can use all the companies' tax returns to get a detailed understanding of a whole range of transactions: salaries, expenses paid, dividends paid...", illustrates Marie Leclair.

Sitting in front of a whiteboard covered with calculations in red felt-tip pen - incomprehensible to laypeople - she explains how important it is to make the data consistent, because they come from various sources: from INSEE itself, but also from other statistical services and the private sector, professional federations for example.

"We are doing a reconciliation process" to bring together "all these little pieces of history captured by different statistical sources," emphasizes Marie Leclair.

This graduate of the renowned National School of Statistics and Economic Administration (Ensae) supervises around fifty people.

Among them are statisticians tasked with "quickly" producing the first quarterly estimates, and others preparing the annual accounts. There are also specialists for each sector or field.

"It requires a lot of rigor, a strong team spirit and a keen interest in economic issues," she explains.

Thus, "foreign trade specialists monitor customs data and the Bank of France's balance of payments. They also follow the press, for example, regarding aircraft or ship deliveries."

Site inspection and visit

Methodologists, for their part, ensure that national accounting standards coincide in practice with European standards.

"Besides, we always have our bible with us," notes Marie Leclair, smiling as she taps her European System of Accounts 2010 ("ESA 2010" or "SEC 2010" in French), a manual describing, among other things, what to include in GDP, for example fraud and patents.

The evolution of standards takes place at the international level. Thus, the United Nations has debated how to take into account the role of multinationals, the digitalization of the economy or the weight of natural resources, she notes.

At the European level, the Eurostat statistical office meticulously ensures that the data are comparable between different countries, closely "monitors" GDP and deficit in particular, and "comes on site every two years," emphasizes Marie Leclair.

But the statistics are far from being fixed: since 2024, INSEE has been publishing, in addition to the traditional growth figures, information on its carbon footprint and on the redistribution of income, two themes at the heart of the public debate.

"National accounting is constantly questioning how it measures things," asserts Marie Leclair. Because "the economy is constantly changing."