BNP Paribas Real Estate comments on the Immostat indicators for the first quarter of 2026

Office rental market in the Île-de-France region: demand hampered by economic uncertainties

According to Eric Siesse, Deputy Managing Director in charge of the IDF Office Leasing division of BNP Paribas Real Estate Advisory France: "Demand for office space in the Île-de-France region reached 367.400 m² in the first three months of 2026, representing a decline of -15% year-on-year and -18% compared to the average of the last five years."

Moreover, the small and medium-sized retail space segment (less than 5.000 m²) is showing strong resilience in the current context, totaling 291.000 m², up 2% year-on-year.

After having long captured a significant share of post-Covid demand, the Paris Central Business District (CBD) is confirming its slowdown, registering a 23% year-on-year decrease in transaction volume. Conversely, La Défense, an established office district, is experiencing a less pronounced decline with 36.600 sq m (-11%) leased in the first three months of the year. Finally, volumes in the outer suburbs show a very impressive result (+92% year-on-year), largely driven by Dassault Systèmes' lease of over 23.000 sq m of office space in the Connect building in Vélizy-Villacoublay. "All these peripheral markets are capitalizing on the renewed interest of users in higher-quality, well-located buildings with attractive financial terms," ​​comments Eric Siesse.

For Eric Siesse: "Faced with an unstable geopolitical context and highly uncertain economic and financial prospects for many businesses, the significant heterogeneity of rental values ​​in the Île-de-France region could continue to encourage greater mobility among users seeking savings and further fuel the volume of transactions in the suburbs."

Logistics in France: a declining sector, but still promising prospects

According to Franck Poizat, co-director of the industrial division at BNP Paribas Real Estate Advisory France: “Like other asset classes, logistics investment volume has been particularly hampered at the start of this year by numerous economic and financial uncertainties. As a result, only €230 million was invested in logistics during the first quarter, marking a significant decline compared to the same period in 2025 (-65%). Nevertheless, some ongoing negotiations confirm the continued interest of investors in this asset class and suggest a rebound in activity in the coming quarters.”

The same trend is observed on the user side, with take-up significantly declining year-on-year (-64%), totaling 330.000 sq m of user transactions across 26 deals (operations exceeding 5.000 sq m and excluding Class C) throughout France. The average size of leased space has contracted sharply, falling from 17.000 sq m in Q1 2025 to approximately 12.000 sq m at the start of this year. "Despite this downward trend, several major transactions are worth noting in France, including FM Logistics' own-account acquisition in Escrennes (45) for over 60.000 sq m," adds Franck Poizat.

In this market context, "logistics retains robust fundamentals, while the increased selectivity of both users and investors reinforces market polarization to the benefit of the best-performing assets," adds Franck Poizat.

Commercial real estate investment: a decline in volumes in Q1 in a market searching for direction

After a more dynamic end to 2025, investment volumes in commercial real estate in France started the year slowly with a volume of 2,5 billion euros in the first quarter of 2026. This overall underperformance (-37% year-on-year) is explained in particular by an unfavorable base effect, as the first quarter of 2025 was characterized by the signing of several large-scale transactions.

According to Brice de Germay, Deputy Managing Director of BNP Paribas Real Estate Advisory France: "Despite the uncertain environment, we are not currently seeing a significant volume of abandoned transactions specifically due to the potential impacts of the conflict. Existing transactions are proceeding as planned, demonstrating the market's resilience at this stage."

“The rise in bond yields, combined with a persistent inflationary environment, could, however, encourage investors to be cautious and fuel a wait-and-see approach in the coming months,” adds Brice de Germay. The persistence of these economic and financial uncertainties, should it be confirmed over time, is also likely to exert further pressure on prices and ultimately lead to a further decline in real estate yields.

Under these conditions, the coming months will be crucial in confirming these developments.

For Brice de Germay: "Investors will closely scrutinize the macroeconomic consequences of the conflict, but also the decisions of central banks, whose policies will be key to restoring visibility to the market and supporting the recovery of investment volumes in the coming months."