An unprecedented study analyzes a decade of acquisitions by social housing organizations in the Ile-de-France region

Three underlying trends

The study highlights profound changes that are redrawing the conditions of access to land for social landlords:

• A shift from land to real estate: over the past ten years, organizations have acquired less and less land for direct construction, and increasingly purchased existing real estate (particularly through VEFA). The share of expenditure devoted to real estate has thus increased from 45% in 2011 to 75% in 2021.
• A decline in public land: the areas sold by the State and local authorities have fallen, from more than a third of acquisitions at the start of the decade to just 14% in 2019-2021.
• A geographical shift towards the outer suburbs: 88% of land acquisitions are now concentrated in these areas, compared to just over half in 2010-2012, resulting in a drop in average purchase prices but a move away from tense areas.

Increased dependence on the private market

To compensate for the decline in public sales, social housing organizations are increasingly turning to private sellers, particularly individuals. The latter represented 7% of acquired space in the early 2010s, compared to 37% ten years later. This development directly confronts social landlords with the market logic of land valuation, with prices varying greatly depending on the players: relatively low for individuals, significantly higher for developers.

Strategic lessons for tomorrow

This overview sheds light on the transformation of the production model: less direct land control, more recourse to existing real estate and private sectors. This trend calls into question the ability of social housing organizations to secure, over the long term, their access to land and to produce social housing in areas of high demand.

For Anne-Katrin Le Doeuff, director of AORIF: "This study shows that social housing organizations in the Paris region have moved away from traditional land markets and are increasingly relying on real estate and private logic. This calls into question the future of their ability to produce and maintain an affordable supply in a context of land pressure."

A partnership research approach

This publication inaugurates a new AORIF collection, Portraits of the Territory – Researchers, which aims to bring together academic research and social housing stakeholders. The work was conducted in conjunction with an editorial committee bringing together researchers and professionals, in order to exchange perspectives and provide objective insights into developments in the sector.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.