While the figures for construction and sales of new homes are reaching low points, dragging down all upstream and downstream sectors of the industry in their wake, some more positive signals and trend changes are emerging. But the end of the crisis looks set to be long and gradual. On the materials side, the aggregates and ready-mix concrete (RMC) sector will again record a significant contraction in their activity in 2024, pulling production volumes to historic lows (at an estimated 304 million tonnes for aggregates and 33 million m3 for RMC). Even if the real estate market is expected to slowly emerge from its lethargy in 2025, the delays in diffusion to the construction sector and the many political uncertainties could still weigh on the materials activity, which, at best, would stabilise or even decline further for RMC.
Key figures
Over the last three months, compared to the previous three months, activity in aggregates and ready-mixed concrete remains slightly upward: +1,3% and +1,2% respectively.
October still in slight decline
According to initial estimates from UNICEM, the activity of ready-mixed concrete and aggregates would have declined again in October. Compared to September, aggregate volumes would have fallen by -2,3%, registering a decline of -4,3% compared to October 2023 (CVS-CJO data). Over the last three known months, activity shows a contraction of -4,2% over one year while, compared to the previous three months, it remains slightly upward, by +1,3%. Thus, over the first ten months of the year, the trend returns to -5,5% year-on-year, a more moderate rate than for the rolling cumulative over twelve months (-6,5%). With regard to ready-mixed concrete, the month of October also records a decline in deliveries, by -9,8% over one year, but a virtual stabilization (-0,2%) compared to September (CVS-CJO data). As with aggregates, the development of activity remains positive over the last three months compared to the previous three months (+1,2%) but remains in sharp decline year-on-year (-9,8%). In total, cumulatively since October, BPE production volumes are still down -12,6% over one year.
Some signs of change are therefore emerging, but they are still timid. The UNICEM materials indicator confirms this: after three months of increases, the index (at 83,6) fell again in September, by -2% compared to August (CSV-CJO data). However, in the third quarter, the activity of the "basket" shows an increase compared to the previous quarter (+1,7%) and its year-on-year decline comes to -5%, a more moderate rate of decline than that observed cumulatively over the first nine months of the year (-8%) or over the twelve rolling months (-9,4%). The activity of the basket therefore remains, at the end of September, 16,4% below its level at the start of 2021, with certain materials such as tiles and bricks, cement or concrete and concrete products, widening the gap further. The better orientation of the public works sector has however made it possible to limit the decline of some of them while those which are exclusively intended for the residential sector are recording strong contractions.
2024: between the construction crisis and the end of the cycle for public works

The epicentre of the real estate shock is now behind us. However, the shockwave has not yet finished spreading throughout the sector and the rest of the economy. The level of housing building permits, despite a gradual recovery (+12,9% compared to September in CVS-CJO data), was still, at the end of October, 10,5% below its level of the previous twelve months and remained 23% below the average of the last ten years. As for housing starts, the recent increases (+11,5% compared to September in CVS-CJO data) are far from stemming the decline, which shows -18,7% at the end of October over twelve months, i.e. a level around 30% below the average of the last decade. In total, the number of housing starts will reach a historic low in 2024, with probably less than 250.000 units. Further upstream, the prospects for real estate developers are tending to recover, after having crossed low points, as are reservations for new housing which confirmed an increase in the third quarter. Thus, with 17.456 units reserved, the market is reviving for the third consecutive quarter (+4,6% compared to the previous quarter, CVS-CJO data) leaving the level of transactions up +5,8% over one year... but more than 40% lower than their average for the last ten years! The conditions for a recovery have slowly been put in place in 2024, allowing this change in trends to begin, but many constraints and uncertainties remain for the coming months.
The drop in interest rates (-83 bps on average on bank loans between December 2023 and November 2024) coupled with a more proactive loan supply policy on the part of banks have enabled households to return to credit, the production of which over the last three months (September to November) has increased by +37% for purchases of new properties. The disinflationary movement and the slight decline in new property prices have helped restore household solvency; their housing investment projects have been recovering for several months, as confirmed by the INSEE household survey. However, we should not count on future price reductions to improve real estate purchasing power in 2025: in fact, the prices of new housing (which have only fallen slightly) are already on the rise again in the third quarter of 2024 (+0,2% for apartments and +5,5% for houses compared to the previous quarter, CVS-CJO data). The scarcity of land, construction costs, the multiplication of technical standards, and the drying up of the supply of new programs are in fact contributing to maintaining high price levels. Thus, only banking conditions and the implementation of support measures will be able to increase household solvency. However, the prospects for a fall in borrowing rates are reduced for 2025, despite the new expected reductions in key rates by the ECB, because banks will be constrained by long-term rates; This is all the more so since the climate of institutional uncertainty and political instability risks shaking up the financial markets and straining the rate of government loans. As for support measures, the extension of the PTZ to the entire territory and to individual housing, which was highly anticipated in the 2025 budget, has not yet been able to come to fruition due to the vote of censure.
On the public works side, the good performance of activity (+2,4% over one year, in volume, from January to October) and order books (+8,5%) made it possible to limit the extent of the deterioration of aggregates, although the latter did not benefit from the same support as during previous electoral cycles. Indeed, the nature of public works projects in 2023 and 2024 (more focused on civil engineering works and urban development and transport projects than on roads and earthworks) proved to be not very "greedy" for aggregates. It is worth adding to this the now much more virtuous approach to the resource which leads to favoring a circular economy approach. In 2025, the activity of major operators should continue to fuel demand for materials while local authority equipment expenditure should increase again (+5,9% in volume in 2025, the last year of the electoral cycle, after +5,5% in 2024) according to the latest OFGL* note.
Materials 2025: no recovery in sight
After an estimated decline of around -4% for aggregates and -12% for ready-to-use building materials in 2024, material requirements are unlikely to see a real recovery next year. The climate of political uncertainty and upcoming budgetary guidelines could weigh on both the potential for recovery in housing and the investment cycle of local authorities. At best, a stabilisation in aggregates and a slight decline in ready-to-use building materials are expected, confirming in any case a historically low level of activity.
Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.