A "positive scenario" is possible for growth, according to the Governor of the Bank of France

The Governor of the Bank of France considered on Thursday, June 25, the possibility of a "positive scenario" for French growth, even though the institution had considerably lowered its annual forecast in mid-June.

"Our forecast is for growth close to zero" (in the second quarter, after already -0,1% in the first), he recalled, which led to a revision of 0,4 points of the previous annual forecast, to 0,5%, on June 16.

The following day, INSEE, which apparently had had more time to incorporate the announcement of an agreement between Iran and the United States that had occurred the previous weekend, published its own forecasts, for its part anticipating a second quarter of 0,3% for an annual growth of 0,7%.

"Let's hope they're right," the governor said in Paris, at the major gathering of Entrepreneurs, the new name for the CPME.

"Today we have the ceasefire, the drop in the price of oil, so these are rather good news which point us more towards a positive scenario than a degraded one," he added.

The Bank of France had indeed published three alternative scenarios to its central scenario: an unfavorable one, a very unfavorable one and a more favorable one, close to the base scenario but with a faster rebound in 2027, and based on a faster and marked fall in the price of hydrocarbons.

Mr. Moulin also noted that, in the June forecasts based on May data, "the average oil price for the year was around $97, which is above what we are experiencing today."

On Thursday, oil prices fell further, dropping to levels not seen since the start of the conflict in the Middle East.

At midday, the price of a barrel of Brent crude from the North Sea, for delivery in August, was worth $72,64, and its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, for delivery in the same month, was $69,49.