Local elections 2026: Is the green wave about to recede?

One week before the first round, the Terram Institute and Ifop published an exceptionally large national survey conducted with a nationally representative sample of 10.000 French people, which notably highlights a risk of the "green wave" of 2020 receding.

Green mayors threatened with a protest vote

The question of a retreat of the "green wave" of 2020 arises in light of several indicators from the Ifop/Terram survey.

A retrospective misalignment with regard to the choice made in 2020 is first of all very clear in the municipalities held by the ecologists: 30% of voters who voted in 2020 for one of the EELV mayors or various ecologists regret their vote at the time, twice as much as the average observed in the 35.000 metropolitan municipalities.

Rarely seen for parties so far removed from government action, this feeling of bitterness makes Green mayors the most threatened by a protest vote: only 24% of voters in cities run by a Green want them re-elected, half the national average (55%).

And this election looks all the more difficult for political ecology as the salience of environmental concerns in public opinion has considerably decreased, including in the metropolises which are nevertheless its traditional areas of strength… The most striking example is the fight against climate change at the local level, relegated to 17th place among the issues of the election, down 8 points compared to 2020.

Environmental issues are now the ones that will play the least role in the French vote, including in large metropolitan areas which are traditionally strongholds of the Green vote… Conversely, the importance given to security and quality of life issues will play a central role: security (76%), healthcare provision (75%), drug trafficking (70%), incivilities (69%) and cleanliness (69%) occupy the top five positions.

François Kraus's perspective for Terram: "Interpreting current trends invites us to revisit the 'green wave' of 2020, which, in an exceptional context (record abstention, overrepresentation of an urban, educated electorate sensitive to environmental issues), saw the Greens win or retain control of about ten cities with more than 50.000 inhabitants: Marseille, Lyon, Strasbourg, Bordeaux, Grenoble, Tours, Annecy, Besançon, Colombes, and Poitiers. In 2026, with a sharp decline in environmental concerns, an often mixed record for their outgoing mayors, and a surge in voter turnout that dilutes the EELV electorate, the indicators do not look promising for the proponents of political ecology."

To read the full Terram*Ifop Institute study, click on this link: https://institut-terram.org/publications/municipales-les-premices-de-la-presidentielle/