Olympic Games-2024: 6,7 to 11,1 billion in economic benefits expected for Paris and its region

This work carried out by the Center for Sports Law and Economics (CDES) revises upwards the first forecasts of the economic impact of the Games for the capital region estimated in 2016 between 5,3 and 10,7 billion euros . No estimate of the impact has been provided on the scale of the whole of France, Paris and its region concentrating "a very large majority of competition sites as well as most of the sporting events", argues the CDES.

The figures published Tuesday, which take into account the impact of inflation on the benefits, are broken down into three large blocks: revenues linked to the organization of the event, those resulting from the construction or renovation of infrastructure and finally those expected from tourism. The expected benefits range from 2018 to 2034.

As the head of economic studies at CDES Christophe Lepetit reminds us, the study measures "the additional activity compared to a situation where the event" would not have been organized, rather than the "profitability" of the Games, which will be evaluated in a separate study.

Organization

The benefits generated by the expenditure of the Games organizing committee range from 3,2 billion ("low scenario") to 4,6 billion euros ("high scenario"), the "central scenario" counting on benefits of 3,8 billion.

The economic impact of organizational expenses is concentrated between 2018 and 2024, during the preparation and then staging phases of the Olympic and Paralympic Games, details the CDES. The expected benefits during the “legacy phase” of the Games (2025-2034) will reach at best 322 million euros.

To erase the effect of inflation that has occurred since the last study, which may have contributed to inflating the hoped-for benefits, the CDES also calculated the economic impact of the Games in "constant euros".

With this change in method, the expected benefits are more modest: 2,7 billion in the "low scenario", 3,2 in the "central scenario" and 3,9 in the best case.

Construction

While many of the sports infrastructures which will host Games events were already built before the event was awarded to France, the expected impact of construction and renovation expenditure is between 2,1 and 3 billion euros, with an intermediate scenario estimated at 2,5 billion.

The benefits will again be concentrated between 2018 and 2024, with barely a few tens of millions of euros expected over the period 2025-2034.

In constant euros, the economic impact of the Games would be in the range of 1,8 to 2,5 billion euros.

The authors of the study emphasize that they deliberately limited themselves to calculating the benefits directly linked to the construction or renovation of infrastructure "truly necessary for the Games" (stadiums, Olympic village, etc.).

Certain infrastructure expenses less directly linked to the event are therefore excluded from the calculation. This is for example the case of the Grand Paris Express, excluded from the calculation of the benefits in 2016 as in 2024, explains Christophe Lepetit.

Tourism

This is the position for which there is the greatest uncertainty regarding the fallout, since the tourists have not yet arrived in France for the Games.

The benefits should reach 1,4 to 3,6 billion euros taking into account inflation, and 1,2 to 3 billion in constant euros.

The impact will depend in particular on the number of tickets sold for the Olympic and Paralympic events.

Among the 12,4 to 14 million tickets deemed "marketable" by the CDES, at least 77% should find buyers for the Olympic Games and at least 62% for the Paralympic Games, the CDES anticipates.

Unlike the other two positions, the benefits linked to tourism during the “legacy phase” of the Games (2025-2034) could be considerable, “due to potential growth in post-Games tourism in Île-de-France” : from 201 million to 1,2 billion euros depending on the scenarios.

Despite this shower of figures, comparing the impact of the Paris Games and those of previous editions is difficult.

“It is difficult to compare different realities, different countries, different economies,” underlines Tania Braga, director of heritage at the IOC.