1 out of 6 French people say they have a real estate project for 2023

Investors are coming back in force while first-time buyers are less numerous and are postponing their real estate project. As for the main reasons for not committing to a real estate project within a year: the excessively high prices of housing and the lack of personal contribution are the two main reasons. These are some of the lessons learned from the 11th wave of the DRIMKI indicator, a specialist in real estate valuation, and BVA, a research and consulting company, carried out in November with the French, in order to find out about their real estate projects in the next 12 months.

1 out of 6 French people say they have a real estate project

Despite the current situation, which is not conducive to the purchase of real estate, the proportion of French people involved in a real estate project is still stable, since 16% of them say they have a real estate project in the next 12 months. A more marked decision among the under 35s, almost a quarter of whom plan to take such a step in the next 12 months (25%). However, only 19% of executives have a real estate project in the coming year compared to 34% of executives in March 2022.

While it was 20% in March 2022, the proportion of Ile-de-France residents who declared having a real estate project fell by 8 points and reached only 12% (16% in the rest of France).

The fall of first-time buyers

While it reached 44% last March, the proportion of French people planning to buy their first home, among French people with a real estate project, is down 8 months later (33%; -11 points vs. March 2022). After the uncertainty linked to the health crisis, the current economic environment therefore also seems to have a negative impact on the aspirations of first-time buyers who prefer to postpone their project.

The rise in investment

Conversely, the proportion of French people wishing to invest, by buying a property to rent it, is on the rise! This is now the desire of a quarter of French people with a real estate project in the next 12 months (24%; +9 points vs. March 2022). This is particularly the case for CSP+ (32%) and Ile-de-France residents (51%). The emergence of financial opportunities, linked to periods of economic slowdown, could be the source of this increase.

For the other types of real estate projects envisaged, the intention to sell one's home to buy another (30%), the desire to sell one's home without buying another (7%) and the desire to acquire a second home ( 6%) keep the same proportion as in March 2022.

High cost of real estate and difficulties in obtaining a loan

Among the reasons for not committing to a real estate project over the next 12 months, the external and especially economic aspects are important. 24% of French people who do not have a real estate project in the coming year deplore the excessively high prices of housing (34% for 25-34 year olds), 11% the difficulties in obtaining loans and 9% the excessive cost materials for the work.

The other possible obstacles to the implementation of a real estate project seem less paralyzing in their eyes: 7% mention the increase in charges, 3% the tightening of energy regulations, in particular via the DPE. The latter do not yet seem to be a real barrier, especially for investors, although it will be prohibited from 2025 to rent out housing rated G.

The personal aspect in the absence of a real estate project

Financial issues also constitute a significant obstacle: 21% of individuals who do not have a real estate project today justify it by the absence of a personal contribution; a situation more common among people with the lowest incomes (28%) and those under 35 (22%), possibly amplified by the decline in purchasing power caused by the inflation initiated in recent months.

Two-thirds of French people who do not have a real estate project for the coming year explain it by the non-existence of such a need or a lack of desire (65%). The oldest are, quite logically, more concerned (81%), but this is also the case for the wealthiest people (71%). For the latter, some of them are probably already owners, but this also reflects less significant blockages related to their financial situation despite the current situation.

“If one thing is certain, it is the desire of the French for stone that resists the winds and tides! The rise in prices and interest rates as well as inflation obviously have an impact on the French, but more on the type of project than on the intention to have a real estate project in the next 12 months. Fewer first-time buyers are committed to a project and prefer to postpone their project, while those who wish to invest are coming back to the fore by taking advantage of the economic slowdown to find financial opportunities in stone.” analyzes Olivier Colcombet, President of Digit RE Group and spokesperson for DRIMKI.

*Study carried out by BVA for DRIMKI (available on request), from November 16 to 17, 2022 on a sample of 925 people aged 25 and over, from an overall sample of 1000 people representative of the French population aged 18 and more.