VAT: Revenues expected to rise in 2025, but still lagging behind growth

Progress confirmed… but very moderate

In 2025, VAT revenues increased by approximately +0,2%, after +0,9% in 2024. A particularly weak increase, far from the levels observed during the post-Covid recovery years.

This VAT corresponds to the amounts collected by companies and then paid to the State, making it a direct indicator of taxable activity.

A decoupling from growth

At the same time, economic growth remains more dynamic. As a result, VAT revenues are growing more slowly than GDP, confirming a decline that began in 2023.

In other words, activity is progressing, but the VAT collected is not keeping pace.

A dynamic that raises questions

This discrepancy raises questions, especially since VAT is the state's primary source of tax revenue.

Several factors can explain this:

• less dynamic household consumption
• a shift in spending towards less heavily taxed products or services
• structural or price effects
• or even discrepancies between actual activity and taxable base

A signal to watch out for

While VAT revenue continues to rise, its pace remains insufficient to keep pace with growth. This trend could strain public finances if it continues in the coming months.