Relative stability in mortgage rates in April despite tensions in the bond markets

Mortgage lending remains a strategic loss leader for banking institutions, particularly as spring approaches, a traditionally dynamic period for transactions.

According to Pretto data, the average rates observed in April are as follows:

• 3,30% over 15 years
• 3,41% over 20 years
• 3,52% over 25 years

In a context of high market volatility, mortgage rates change little on a global scale, but mask targeted adjustments according to banks and profiles.

Banks are taking a cautious approach in the face of an uncertain environment

April marks a change of scenery: while mortgage rates remain generally stable, bond markets have become significantly tighter.

In less than a month, the 10-year French government bond (OAT) yield has risen, climbing from 3,2% to 3,8%. It even reached a peak of 3,87%, a level not seen since 2009. This trend is part of an international movement of rising rates, with yields exceeding 4,40% in the United States and surpassing the 3% threshold in Germany.

This rise is explained by a sudden change in market expectations, now oriented towards several rate hikes by the European Central Bank in 2026.

In this context, banks are adjusting their lending criteria:

• +0,30 points announced at CCF
• +0,10 points at Crédit Agricole Île-de-France
• +0,07 points at Crédit Agricole

These increases remain moderate, however, proof that institutions are seeking to preserve their attractiveness in the mortgage lending market.

For Pierre Chapon, CEO and co-founder of Pretto: "The bond market has completely revised its scenario in just a few weeks. We've gone from an expectation of stability to a prospect of rising rates. But on the banks' side, the reaction remains restrained: they continue to carefully manage their lending schedules to remain competitive."

OAT 10 years: a signal under tension, but reversible

Bond markets are reacting strongly to this instability:

• Increase in inflation expectations
• Uncertainties about growth
• Widening of the France/Germany spread (80 basis points)

However, this movement could remain temporary.

If tensions ease quickly, the inflationary impact would remain limited and interest rates could gradually relax. The signal sent by the European Central Bank on March 20—maintaining key interest rates but urging increased vigilance—encourages banks to remain competitive while factoring in macroeconomic uncertainties.

As for the usury rate, which on April 1st rises to 5,19% for fixed-rate loans with a term of 20 years and more, there is currently no reason to think that it could pose a problem as the current situation does not involve soaring real estate rates.

For Pierre Chapon: “Many of our clients are asking questions or expressing concern about current events, which is perfectly understandable. But at this stage, we are not seeing any freeze in the credit market. Banks remain open, conditions are holding, and projects continue to materialize.”

A credit market that remains dynamic despite the context

Despite geopolitical and financial tensions, demand for mortgage loans remains on a positive trajectory.

At Pretto, credit simulations show an increase of +21% between March 1st and 27th, 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.

This signal confirms that, despite the uncertainties, real estate projects are not at a standstill.

The institutions still have sufficient liquidity: production is now more limited by the volume of transactions than by financing capacity.

Springtime in real estate: between opportunity and wait-and-see

Spring is traditionally a key period for the real estate market, with a recovery in transactions driven by household relocation projects.

In 2026, this momentum could be partially hampered by:

• The geopolitical context,
• Uncertainties surrounding interest rates,
• A wait-and-see attitude among some buyers.

However, the fundamentals remain solid: active banks, generally stable credit conditions and a still competitive market.

At Pretto, the message is clear: no sudden rise is anticipated, but there is a risk of a gradual and measured increase, and a very low probability of a significant decline in the short term.

In this context, expecting a clear improvement in conditions appears uncertain.

For Pierre Chapon, CEO and co-founder of Pretto: "In such a controlled market, waiting for a significant drop in rates is a risky gamble. For borrowers, the main challenge is to secure favorable terms now, before any potential upward adjustments."

The market therefore remains favorable to solid borrowers, but more than ever, timing and the quality of the application make the difference.

Illustrative image of the article via Depositphotos.com.